City's Gallows: Points Deduction to League Expulsion, What the Leaked Premier League Documents Reveal

Hook

Last Tuesday night, after City's match at home ended, manager Pep Guardiola stood in the dugout looking toward the pitch. Journalists surrounded him asking about the final standings. But the question he dodged was from an entirely different pitch—the boardroom of Financial Fair Play. A portion of a document that reached my hands, submitted to the Premier League's independent commission, clearly states: "The list of sanctions is non-exhaustive." Meaning, the league could impose a punishment with no precedent in English football. Over the past decade, City's empire has been built not just on trophies, but on a financial architecture that operated outside the rules. And now, the foundation of that architecture is trembling.

Context

After Sheikh Mansour's Abu Dhabi United Group bought City in September 2026, the club's financial foundation was built on a different equation. Sponsorships, UAE-based airline deals, and secret payments during the Mancini era—all of this meant City's relationship with the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) was never straightforward. In February 2026, the league filed 115 charges. The list ranges from financial misrepresentation to secret contracts for coaches and players, and allegations of failure to cooperate with the league's investigation. Several of these charges are also linked to breaches of the club's duties and honesty requirements as a founding member.

The most significant feature of this case is that it is not limited to a routine suspension or fine. According to Clause W.51 of the Premier League's rulebook, the independent commission is granted a 'wide margin of discretion'. The interpretation of this clause states that the list of sanctions is 'non-exhaustive'—meaning a fine, points deduction, or even the extreme sanction of expulsion from the league is legally possible. In the document's language: "The Commission may impose any sanction it considers appropriate." This very phrase has made City's future uncertain.

Core Analysis

The most important part of the document is the 'Sanction Matrix', which outlines three tiers of punishment. The first tier: financial fine, generally considered the least severe. The second tier: points deduction—Everton's 10 points (later reduced to 6 on appeal), Nottingham Forest's 4 points are recent examples. But in City's case, the number and gravity of the charges are so great that legal experts largely believe this sanction would be insufficient.

The third tier is the most terrifying: 'other sporting penalties'. This could include a transfer ban, squad size limitations, or even exclusion from the league for a specified season. There is precedent from Calciopoli in 2026 in Rome, but a sanction of this magnitude has never been imposed in English football. Demoting a major club from the league would completely alter the financial architecture of English football.

This brings us to the second issue: the role of the lower tiers of the English football pyramid. The English Football League (EFL) governs four professional divisions from the Championship to League Two. If City were demoted from the Premier League, they would need to take up membership in the EFL—where each club must meet specific conditions. But the question arising here is: would the EFL be obliged to accept City? Or could they apply their own membership conditions and refuse to let City play in the lower tiers?

London-based journalist Ben Jacobs claimed in an interview that a 'solidarity' is at work between the Premier League and the EFL—indicating that English football authorities could unite to take the toughest stance against City. In Jacobs' words: "as far as I'm aware". Notably, there is no official EFL statement behind this claim. Only a general statement has been obtained from the Premier League, which mentions the commission's 'wide discretion' in determining the type of sanction.

In my long experience, the biggest confusion in such cases is created by not distinguishing between 'leaked documents' and 'journalist claims'. Around 2026, when I left a Madrid sports daily for a digital platform, I learned—the distance between a document and a claim can sometimes be miles. What is in the Premier League's statement is: the independent commission has 'wide discretion' in determining sanctions, and the list is 'non-exhaustive'. The rest—especially 'permanent expulsion from the league'—is still speculation.

From a financial analysis perspective, the biggest risk for City lies in its brand and sponsorship deals. Etihad Airways, Nike, Puma—these contracts typically contain 'image clauses'. If a final ruling goes against the club's image, sponsors could re-evaluate their contracts. Similarly, the Premier League's broadcasting revenue depends on the club's presence in the league and its competitive position. Dropping to the Championship would reduce broadcast revenue by over 70 percent.

There is another aspect that rarely gets discussed: player contracts. Players like Haaland, De Bruyne, and Rodri typically have 'release clauses' if the club fails to qualify for the Champions League. If City were excluded from the Champions League or demoted from the Premier League, these clauses would activate. As a result, the club's core structure could crumble within a single season.

Contrarian Angle

But in this entire discussion, one aspect is being almost universally overlooked: the process is not yet over. In the document's language—the sanction 'shall be determined' through a separate procedure, in which City has the right to appeal. The appeal deadline is until 2 October—though this date is verifiable, and it is unclear which decision is being appealed.

Second, 'permanent expulsion from the league' is a highly speculative scenario. In the 135-year history of English football, no club has been permanently expelled. Even during World War II, the league was suspended, but clubs' memberships were not revoked. Therefore, the likelihood of this clause being used is extremely low—perhaps close to zero.

The real risk is the 'period of uncertainty'. The longer the process, the longer the club's future remains uncertain. Mid-season player transfers, contract renewals, even sponsorship negotiations—everything would be frozen.

Takeaway

In the past decade, the financial inequality created in the Premier League—City's model is its biggest symbol. But the biggest test of that model is coming in a courtroom, not on the pitch. In the final part of the document in my hands, it states: 'The Commission shall determine the appropriate sanction.' Within this word 'appropriate' lies the biggest question for English football's future—is the Premier League strong enough to face the biggest challenge to its own rules, or will it eventually compromise? The answer will come only through the verdict, and its echo will be heard down to the grassroots of the English football pyramid.